Thoughts on Science, Technology, History, Current Events and All Things Interesting

Watching the Stock Market Has Entertainment Value

Posted: 10/10/2008, Perm Link Readers: 74


Unless you are losing boatloads of money, watching the current stock market volatility is actually pretty interesting.

In 1995 I briefly working on developing a trading system for the S&P500 Index Futures but never completed the work. I did however remember a particular day at the end of the work where the market bounced up from around 470. Little did I realize that around that time the next major bull market would grow.

From 1995 until September, 2000 the S&P500 grew from around 470 to 1520, or 320%. Then, in the post dot com/9-11 crash, it fell back to 840 by March, 2003, a fall of 45%. It's interesting that in the 10 worst stock market "crashes" the most common drop is between 40% and 50% (other than 1929, which ultimately fell 85%).

The next ramp up starting in March, 2003, went from 840 up to 1560 in October, 2007, a rise of 185%. The current fall (as of a few minutes ago) is to 914, a fall of 42%. As bad as things seem now, the stock market fall is in line with all but 1929.

Of course much of the fall has occurred in the last month, although the market has been falling somewhat since last year. Where we go from here is still unknown as the causes of the current negative outlook seem much more complicated than normal.

Since I wrote two paragraphs earlier the market has already dropped to 897.

Strap on your harnesses, this thrill ride is just getting started.

Tags: money